A new study by the UC Economics Center projects a 5.1 percent increase in holiday sales (November and December) this year over last in Cincinnati. This is slightly higher than the estimated growth in Ohio of 4.5 percent.
Director of Research Dr. Michael Jones looked at:
- Increased employment levels (since December 2013 there are 30,000 more Ohio workers)
- Higher wages (wages have climbed 4 to 5 percent)
- Consumer confidence (it's at a 7-year high)
- Lower energy prices
Jones says this is one of the strongest forecasts yet. He admits he underestimated holiday sales last year, predicting 3.5 percent when it really was 4.7 percent.
Dayton down
The report shows Dayton's retail sales could decrease .8 percent. Jones says that's because Dayton has lost 1,000 jobs over the past year and employment is a key indicator.
There were some negatives statewide. Jones says online sales continue to gain momentum, home sales and the stock market are slowing down and Ohio's sales tax increased. The UC Economics Center says Ohio lost $70 million in taxes from e-commerce and retailers lost $200 million.
The regional forecast varies, with the big three cities making up 50 percent of the total retail sales:
- Columbus 6.3 percent
- Cincinnati 5.1 percent
- Cleveland 3.9 percent
