It seemed for a while — from late June after the Dobbs decision overturning Roe through September — that Democrats might defy political gravity and not suffer the kinds of losses that are so typical for the president's party in his first midterm. But in the past few weeks, much of the available data show things moving back in Republicans' direction.
Concerns over inflation and the economy continue to top voters' concerns, and Democratic enthusiasm numbers are lagging behind GOP pillar groups. That said, Democratic Senate candidates are still locked in neck-and-neck races with their GOP opponents. So no one really knows what's going to happen with the Senate exactly — and don't believe anyone who seems to think they do.
Republicans are very likely to take control of the House — they only need to flip five seats, and after redistricting they're already favored in seven (seats that are deemed likely or solid Republican), according to the Cook Political Report.
Read more of Domenico Montanaro's analysis on NPR >>
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