Sen. Rob Portman threw a bucket of cold water on those who were hot to see him run for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination when he announced Monday that he would be running for re-election to a second term in the Senate instead.
Portman, with a long resume of nearly 16 years in the House and Senate and experience in the White House (for presidents who were both named Bush), might have been a formidable contender. Smooth, well-versed in the issues, not at all strident or extreme, and a Republican willing to reach across the aisle to get things done, he is just the kind of presidential candidate who might appeal to mainstream Republicans – not to mention the big money GOP donors.
But it is not to be.
“I’ve talked to a lot of Ohioans and they wish I was running because they don’t see a candidate they can support,’’ Portman told WVXU this week. “But most said, ‘look, I get it.’ It’s a tough grind to run and it would take me away from the work I want to do here in D.C. and take me away from home and away from Ohio. I’m comfortable with the decision and it seems like a good fit.”
So be it.
Now, here comes the re-election campaign.
In 2010, Portman – after stints in President George W. Bush’s administration as trade representative and budget director – won Ohio’s open U.S. Senate seat easily – 57 percent of the vote to 39 percent for Democrat Lee Fisher.
Will it be so easy this time?
Portman would certainly be the early favorite for re-election, but much can happen between now and then.
He is almost certainly going to face a GOP primary challenge in 2016, although it is not at all clear yet who that candidate (or candidates) may be.
Last year, Portman came out in favor of same sex marriage, saying he changed his position on the issue after learning that his son, Will, was gay.
This enraged the social conservative wing of the GOP. Phil Burress, who heads Citizens for Community Values (CCV), has promised that there will be a challenge to Portman in a GOP Senate primary. CCV was a major player in getting a constitutional ban on same sex marriage passed by Ohio voters in 2004.
Portman told WVXU he knows he will not have a free ride to the GOP nomination in 2016.
“Of the Republican incumbents who ran this time, every single one of them had a primary, except for one,’’ Portman said.
“I expect one and you prepare for it,’’ the Terrace Park Republican said. “We’ve already got resources set aside for this race. I have more money than any Senate candidate has ever had.’’
By the end of the year, Portman said, he will have a re-election fund of about $6 million.
And Portman, with what has been described as his “billion dollar Rolodex” can be expected to raise much, much more.
Still, he says, he will do what he has always done – travel the state and work in the Senate on issues Ohioans care about. This weekend, he is traveling to Columbus, Morrow County and Sandusky County. He seems to be constantly on the move.
So what about the Democrats? Who will their U.S. Senate candidate be?
The Ohio Democratic Party was put through the wringer in the November election, losing all the statewide offices, from governor on down, and losing badly. They’re in the middle of trying to decide who their new state party chair will be, with former Hamilton County commissioner and unsuccessful candidate for Ohio attorney general David Pepper as one of the candidates.
As far as the 2016 Senate race is concerned, it is a mix of would-be, might-be, could-be potential candidates.
Cincinnati city council member P.G. Sittenfeld, the top vote-getter in the 2013 council election, says he is mulling over a bid for the U.S. Senate.
Other names that come up often in conversation among Democrats are former governor Ted Strickland and Richard Cordray, the former state treasurer and attorney general who now heads the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in the Obama administration.
The list of people being speculated about includes Rep. Tim Ryan, who has been in the U.S. House since 2003.
But, so far, no one has committed to the race. And, after all, it is a bit early. You can expect some of the potential Democratic candidates to begin stirring to life by the spring of next year.
In the meantime, Portman intends to ignore the din around him and concentrate on his position in the Senate – which may be enhanced because of the role he played as the chief fundraiser for the GOP’s successful bid to take control of the Senate in the November election.
He said he hopes that with the Republicans firmly in control of Congress and a Democrat in the White House, there is a window of opportunity to get things done.
“President Obama started on the wrong foot by going around Congress with his immigration executive order,’’ Portman said. “But I do think he is going to want his legacy to include some accomplishments. That means, I hope, that he will be working with us on some of these issues.”
It’s happened before in split governments, Portman said. President Clinton worked with majority Republicans on welfare reform and balancing the budget; and President Reagan did the same on tax reform.
And what if the eventual GOP presidential nominee comes to him and says, “Rob, I’d like you to be my running mate”? He’s been close before – on the short lists for vice president for the last two GOP nominees, John McCain and Mitt Romney.
Kyle Kondik, communications director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, has experience in Ohio politics; and he sees Portman as a “very much a live possibility as the running mate.”
“I could also see him get re-elected to the Senate and, if a Republican wins the White House, leaving to become treasury secretary or some other high position,’’ Kondik said.
Portman swatted off speculation about the number two spot on the ticket.
“I’m not interested in it; I’m not going to pursue it,’’ Portman told WVXU. “It’s not something you can or should pursue. You do the best job you can. I’m really excited about representing Ohio in the U.S. Senate for the two years in an environment where we can finally make progress.”
But, somewhere not so far back in his mind, Portman is thinking about the re-election campaign, and what might be thrown at him – from people in the GOP and from the Democrats.
“I always take it seriously,’’ Portman said of his political campaigns. “I am assuming it will be very competitive.”
