Medina County officials are taking issue with a state projection that the county will lose population by 2050.
In 2024, Medina County had a population of 184,625, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The state's projection estimates the county's population will drop to 181,084 by mid-century, a 0.76% drop. The state overall is also expected to lose population.
"All our indications are when you look at what's going on in housing and workforce and everything that's going on, it doesn't match with our local observations or records," County Commissioner Stephen Hambley said.
Hambley and the other county commissioners approved their own demographic study, which is being performed by International Strategic Analysis, a firm that provides forecasting, research and consulting to the public and private sectors.
"They're gonna look at the population forecasts that have already been identified and maybe indicate where the discrepancies are," he said.
The analysis will also include population forecasts for 2030, 2040 and 2050; an assessment of demographic drivers like birth rates, migration, housing and workforce trends; the impact of demographic changes on the economy and a strategic plan to optimize the county's future, according to officials. The analysis is projected to cost $7,000.
The data will be vital for many planning projects, from housing and transit to education, as well as grant applications, Hambley said.
“If you’re going to have this amount of increase in terms of the age population, what do you need to plan for?," he said. "Do we need to be looking at expansion in our senior centers and so forth?”
The Ohio Department of Development made the projection by looking at age distribution, birth and death rates and migration patterns but not economic, political and policy factors that could substantially impact population.
“They just didn’t have the right local data that was necessary to have a more accurate evaluation of what’s going on," Hambley said.
Most counties in Ohio are projected to lose population by 2050, with only Geauga and Lorain counties in Northeast Ohio projected to grow, according to data from the Ohio Department of Development. The counties expected to be hit the hardest in the region are Columbiana and Mahoning counties, with a 24% and 22% drop respectively.
The state as a whole is projected to lose more than 5% of its total population, about half a million people.
Medina County's data will be presented Feb. 17 at 4:00 p.m. at a public presentation.
