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In Ohio politics, nothing lasts forever.
Party control of the Ohio Statehouse has swung back and forth between the Democrats and the Republicans, like a metronome measuring the passage of time.
For much of the past 32 years — since 1994 — the party in control has been the Republican Party.
They swept Democrats out of the Ohio Statehouse in a red wave launched by Newt Gingrich and his “Contract with America.”
The one exception was 2006, when Democrat Ted Strickland was elected governor, along with Democrats winning the attorney general, state treasurer, and secretary of state offices.
But that change was short-lived.
About once in a generation, the wave rolls back and there is a sea change in Ohio politics, where one party’s control gives way to the other.
Maybe — just maybe — conditions in this state are right for a Democratic takeover this year, at least among the statewide constitutional offices and one of Ohio’s two U.S. Senate seats.
There are no guarantees in politics. Zero. Nary a one.
But there are times when national politics and the conditions in the state come together and give the party out of power in Ohio a genuine opportunity of flipping the script.
This is one of those times.
Donald J. Trump is one of the reasons.
Trump is not the golden idol he was a short time ago in Ohio, when he won the state’s electoral votes by 11.2 percentage points in November 2024.
As of October 2025, Trump’s standing in Ohio had plummeted to a minus-10 favorability rating, according to a Bowling Green State University poll. And there is no sign it is getting any better. In fact, it may be worse.
What it means is that the current occupant of the White House has gone from being an asset to Ohio Republican candidates to an albatross around their necks in the course of one short year.
Incredible. Never seen such a freefall.
You will not, in the 2026 campaign, hear Republican candidates like appointed U.S. Sen. Jon Husted or gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who once worked for the Trump administration, mention the president’s name, except under duress.
The same goes for most of the other GOP candidates in Ohio this year.
In fact, the political conditions are similar between 2026 and 1994, when Ohio last had a sea change favoring the Republicans.
That sea change in American politics took place in Ohio and elsewhere because of the power House Speaker Newt Gingrich wielded in 1994, with his "Contract with America" platform.
Gingrich was able to overwhelm even the president of the United States, Bill Clinton, turning the very unpopular president into a bystander in the 1994 election.
Clinton's presidency was in trouble because of his failures like the health care reform package touted by First Lady Hillary Clinton and the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" executive order.
Gingrich had cribbed most of his "contract" from the agenda of the ultra-conservative Heritage Foundation. It was made up of issues that had been tested by pollsters and all aspects of the plan had 60% approval or higher.
It worked like a charm in Ohio.
In 1994, George Voinovich was re-elected governor over a weak Democratic opponent. Betty Montgomery defeated incumbent Democrat Lee Fisher for Ohio attorney general. Jim Petro was elected state auditor; Bob Taft, secretary of state; J. Kenneth Blackwell state treasurer; and Mike DeWine was elected to the U.S. Senate over Democrat Joel Hyatt.
But the big prize was winning the Ohio House, ending 20 years of Democratic control. Republican Jo Ann Davidson became speaker of the House, ending Democrat Vern Riffe's reign, the longest serving speaker in Ohio history.
Since 1994, GOP control of the Ohio House was broken up only by a two-year interregnum where the Democrats took control after the Barack Obama wave election. Armond Budish spent two years (2009-2010) as House speaker before the Republicans took control again.
Funny how national elections like the Obama wave can influence Ohio elections, isn’t it? Like the moon’s effect on the ocean’s tides. A sea change.
Democrats have an opportunity for that this year.
Party officials are touting a slate of candidates for all of the statewide offices, with former Ohio Health Department director Amy Acton and former Ohio Democratic Party chair David Pepper as her running mate.
At first, all we heard from rank-and-file Democrats about Acton is “I like her, but she can’t win.”
You don’t hear that anymore.
In fact, polling shows her race against Ramaswamy is a dead heat today.
Pepper has supported her from the beginning of her campaign. He wouldn’t be in the No. 2 spot with her unless he believed she could win.
There are going to be a couple of contested primaries among the Democrats in May.
Former State Rep. Elliot Forhan, who was run out of the party last year, is on the ballot for Ohio attorney general. But the party is backing John Kulewicz, a retired attorney and Upper Arlington City Council member. One of them will face Republican Keith Faber, the current state auditor, in the fall.
Democratic Ohio State Rep. Allison Russo, the former House minority leader, and Bryan Hambley, an oncologist with University of Cincinnati Health, are running in the Democratic primary for secretary of state.
The Ohio Democratic Party is likely of two minds about the Russo-Hambley primary.
On one hand, primaries can be divisive and leave the winner as damaged goods for the fall campaign.
On the other hand, it shows that there are people in the party who see an opportunity for Ohio Democrats in 2026 — a chance for a sea change, you might say.
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