MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
We wanted to take a closer look at how sending a U.S. aircraft carrier to the Caribbean might affect relations with South America, so we've called Juan Gonzalez, who has extensive experience in the region. Most recently, he served as National Security Council senior director for the Western Hemisphere during the Biden administration. Mr. Gonzalez, good morning. Thanks for joining us.
JUAN GONZALEZ: Good morning. Thanks for having me.
MARTIN: So as we just heard from Carrie Kahn, the Trump administration would like to get rid of Venezuela's president, Nicolas Maduro. What kind of pressure does the deployment of this aircraft carrier put on Maduro politically?
GONZALEZ: Yeah. Well, you know, the White House is asserting war powers against cartels without congressional authorization. That's something that was discussed previously. This is an authority that the president doesn't have and should not have and could be easily deployed not just abroad, but also in the United States. So beyond Venezuela, there's a domestic implication.
But in terms of the threat, this is something that instead of actually undermining regime cohesion, it has actually strengthened it. The two sides really, I think, all the non-monolithic groups that make up Chavismo have really come together. What is it going to take to remove Maduro? I think it would take actually boots on the ground and, you know, 20,000 to 30,000 Marines to be able to install the rightfully elected leader, Edmundo Gonzalez, and be able to guarantee his security.
MARTIN: So, you know, the previous Trump administration and the Biden administration tried to push out Maduro, at least to pressure him, including economic pressure. It didn't work. What's wrong with flexing militarily?
GONZALEZ: Well, there's nothing wrong with the military deployment. That's the right of the United States. It's the unilateral killings, which I think have questionable legality. And, you know, members in both Congress have already questioned whether killing suspect smugglers at sea is lawful, not just that it opens the door to tragedy. So that's the main concern. But the other is, right now, it seems like the administration has a full naval deployment. By some estimates, roughly 10% of the Navy's total assets are right now in the Caribbean. And the idea is that that is going to destabilize the regime and lead to an individual wanting to collect the $15 million bounty for Maduro. But that's not going to happen.
Right now, the administration has indicated that they're going to attack targets on land. It's one thing to go after, I don't know, the ELN guerrilla group, which originates from Colombia but has safe havens in the west of the country, going after them in a relatively rural area, going after clandestine landing strips. It's a whole nother proposition to try to go into Caracas with targeted missiles. It's just not a viable operation.
MARTIN: Is there another way the U.S. could approach Venezuela? Could he try to make a deal with Maduro...
GONZALEZ: Well - yeah.
MARTIN: ...Open up markets to Venezuelan oil, gas and other resources, something he seems to have kind of floated?
GONZALEZ: Yeah, well, I mean, you know, the administration will not say regime change. But they have cut off negotiations, are choking Venezuela's main revenue source, oil, are running covert action and have four deployed, as mentioned, carrier aviation within strike range. Negotiation channels are key, I think, even in an environment of absolute pressure, which this administration has imposed pressure, but at the same time, allowed Chevron to pull oil out.
They've, you know, taken away temporary protected status from Venezuelans, but they have a migration agreement with Venezuela. So there's some contradictions inside the policy. What is key here is maintaining a channel for dialogue to ensure that, you know, trying to actually negotiate some concessions from Maduro. I think right now, cutting off that channel is something that I think will lead toward escalation inevitably.
MARTIN: Just briefly, we just heard Brazil's president said he might be able to mediate between the U.S. and Venezuela. Do you think that might prove successful?
GONZALEZ: I think that'll be challenging because I think what is driving policy towards Venezuela - and this is true, I think, of Democrats and Republicans - has been domestic policy. And I think the region right now is so, I think, fragmented into left and a right divide, it's going to be very difficult for Lula to actually organize an international coalition of Latin America to pressure Maduro. Can Lula actually make inroads with President Trump? I think that remains to be seen.
MARTIN: We don't have time to talk about Colombia, so you'll have to come back and see us. That's Juan Gonzalez. He served as National Security Council senior director for the Western Hemisphere under President Biden. He's currently a resident fellow at Georgetown University's Americas Institute. Mr. Gonzalez, thanks so much.
GONZALEZ: Thanks for having me.
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