MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
For more on these results and what they mean for the control of Congress, Kyle Kondik is nice enough to join us here in our studios in Washington, D.C. He analyzes elections at the University of Virginia Center for Politics as managing editor of the newsletter Sabato's Crystal Ball. Good morning.
KYLE KONDIK: Good morning.
MARTIN: With this result, how likely is it that Democrats win control of the House of Representatives in the fall?
KONDIK: Democrats already were likely to win the House, and they're more likely to win it now. In our Crystal Ball House ratings, we now have 217 seats safe, likely, or leaning to the Democrats, 205 for the Republicans, and then just 13 toss-ups. You know, 218 is the magic number, so we have them knocking on the door without any of those toss-up districts. So Democrats are in good shape. You know, as was just discussed, there are some other moving pieces and dominoes to fall in redistricting, potentially. But obviously, this is a good result for Democrats. They went big on this. They kind of barely won, but they won, and it's a positive development for them.
MARTIN: Well, you know, the president's party nearly always loses in the midterms, which would appear to give Democrats an inherent advantage. And then on top of that, you have multiple polls indicating that many voters don't approve of President Trump's performance on a number of levels. I'm just wondering, to what extent can Republicans counteract that?
KONDIK: It's difficult. You know, the president's party is always trying to avoid this midterm curse. You know, you do have examples like Bill Clinton, the Democrats in 1998, George W. Bush and the Republicans in 2002, but those were extraordinary circumstances. There were lots of kind of odd features of those elections. And also, those presidents were very popular, had good approval ratings in 1998 and 2002. You know, more recently, the last five midterms, kind of the classic story. You've got unpopular presidents, and their party lost one or both chambers of Congress in those elections.
MARTIN: Let's go back to Virginia. Virginians elected Democratic Governor Abigail Spanberger by 15 points a few months ago. That's something Ashley just referred to. She fought for this congressional remapping effort. It only won by about two points. Does that say something to you?
KONDIK: Yeah. And there was some pretty good polling right before the election that suggested that this thing would pass or that it would be close and that Spanberger's approval rating after winning by 15 points was basically 50-50. And I think that, you know, she expended some political capital on this. I think she took a hit on it because, you know, I think there clearly were people who are Democratic voters who voted no on this because it was seen as so aggressive and maybe kind of, you know, an egregious gerrymander. And look, Virginia is a blue-leaning state, but a 10-1 House delegation is really very Democratic and is really indicative of a gerrymander. Now, certainly, Democrats can point to Republican states and find egregious gerrymanders, too. So there's this constant back-and-forth on it, but...
MARTIN: Well, that was a big ad campaign to say President Trump started this.
KONDIK: Right. Yeah.
MARTIN: Yeah.
KONDIK: And I think that's basically fair to say. But, you know, Spanberger, you know, she expended political capital on this, and I think she took a hit. I think it sort of ended her honeymoon. I think for her, it's probably just a good thing that this is over.
MARTIN: We've reported that there was some voter confusion about this that for the yes ad - there were ads for the yes side quoting President Trump when he, in fact, opposed this map. And there were ads for the no side that quoted former President Obama and Governor Spanberger when they supported it. Did that - do you think there was any confusion around this?
KONDIK: I think there probably was, to some extent, although the actual results kind of mirrored a partisan result in Virginia. You know, you had a lot of voters, you know, quote-unquote, you know, "putting their jerseys on," you know, their red or blue jerseys. And, you know, I think in particular, there was some thought that focusing on Obama and sort of him opposing gerrymandering in the past but then supporting this maybe would cause this to underperform among Black voters. It doesn't seem like it did. It seems like Black voters came out very strongly and took the sort of pro-Democratic Party position on this. And in fact, minority voters in general seem to have voted very strongly Democratic, to the extent that this was weak among Democratic voters. It seemed like it was more probably, like, kind of white liberals, kind of, good government types who, you know, generally vote Democratic but are like, hey, this goes too far.
MARTIN: You know, the Republicans are arguing that a 10-1 congressional map wouldn't fairly represent a purple state, notwithstanding the fact that, you know, the Democrats made the argument - they made it repeatedly 'cause - I know because I live in this media market. I saw the ads, too, that, you know, this is a temporary measure, that President Trump started this. They wouldn't be doing this if President Trump hadn't started this. Having said that, do you think any bad feeling lingers as a result of this?
KONDIK: It's quite possible. And, you know, look, the map is tentatively in place. You know, there is the possibility that the state courts in Virginia could say that the Democrats didn't do the right process in - you know, in presenting this to the voters. And so that is still outstanding. And I'm just curious to see how Spanberger sort of moves along here in her governorship because it was - you know, the legislature in Virginia only meets for a few months out of the year. But it was - you know, it was kind of a very partisan atmosphere. And again, I think she pretty clearly took a hit from that.
MARTIN: Very briefly, the Virginia Supreme Court, as you alluded to, could agree with the challenges to this redistricting measure. What happens?
KONDIK: You know, I think it'd be hard for them to sort of unwind the clock on this and to - you know, the voters had - did have their say. They approved this, it looks like, but only by - you know, when all the votes are counted, maybe it'll be, like, three or four points. And so, you know, coming in here and, you know, overturning the voters, I guess, might be...
MARTIN: Hard for them to do.
KONDIK: ...Seen as aggressive. Yes.
MARTIN: OK. Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. Thanks so much. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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