All six of Kentucky’s seats in the U.S.House are up for election, and the state will select a new senator to replace long-time retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell. For the first time in several years, one of those House seats has a chance of flipping blue as a heated battle in central Kentucky unfolds.
Kentucky Public Radio’s Joe Sonka and Sylvia Goodman discussed the upcoming election and the federal races voters should keep an eye on. No-excuse, early voting is already underway in Kentucky ahead of the Nov. 3 election.
This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
JOE SONKA: It is a very interesting year for federal elections in Kentucky. We've got a toss-up in Central Kentucky's congressional district and a changing of the guard in our Senate. Mitch McConnell is retiring after 42 years, and Kentuckians are picking who will replace him. Let's start off with that race, Sylvia.
SYLVIA GOODMAN: GOP Congressman Andy Barr and former Democratic state Rep. Charles Booker are running for that seat. Barr has Trump's endorsement and has run heavily on the president's platform.
ANDY BARR: I look forward to fighting alongside you to advance our America First agenda.
SG: Booker, meanwhile, is a proud progressive and doesn't shy away from that. He's lost two previous bids for the U.S. Senate on that platform.
CHARLES BOOKER: I'm asking them to let me earn it to give me a chance because we've had enough of the politics of Mitch McConnell and Andy Barr.
SG: Booker's still moving forward, but Barr has the clear and obvious advantage here, both in terms of voter registration and pure fundraising.
JS: Most don't expect a close Senate race, but there is one congressional race where pollsters and election forecasters are predicting a very tight contest. The 6th Congressional District is Kentucky's most purple seat, but it's been staunchly Republican for a while now.
SG: It's the district that covers Lexington, stretches up to Georgetown, down to Richmond, and a lot of the surrounding rural areas. It voted for Trump by 15 points in 2024. For several years, it's been a pretty solid red seat held by Congressman Andy Barr. But following this national trend we've been seeing, a 15-plus Trump district is not out of reach for Democrats this year. Former federal prosecutor Zach Dembo is putting up fierce competition to Republican former state Sen. Ralph Alvarado. At least three election predictors now rate it as a toss-up district. Issues seem to revolve around Trump's policies, prices, and combating corruption in Washington D.C. Here's Dembo, then Alvarado at their debate last week:
ZACH DEMBO: We need an independent fighter to stand up and lower costs for Central Kentuckians.
RALPH ALVARADO: One thing we have to make sure we can do is keep taxes low on people.
SG: Both candidates are really trying to portray themselves as independent voices to varying degrees of success. Dembo is leaning quite a bit into support from Democratic Governor Andy Beshear. Also, during the primary, Alvarado was really proud of his Trump endorsement. He's shying away from it a little bit now, but it was definitely a big part of his campaign then. We're seeing an awful lot of money pouring into this race too. Joe, you've been tracking that, right?
JS: It's been a long time since we've seen that kind of spending in the congressional general election in Kentucky. As of a week before election day, there had already been well more than $10 million of ad spending by political action committees supporting either candidate, with most of those being attack ads. That's not counting the millions spent by the candidates and party committees too. There's been a slight edge in PAC ad spending by the pro-Alvarado side. But on both sides, these PACs have been largely funded by billionaire donors and dark money groups. Dembo is getting some help from Beshear, though, as his PAC chipped in about $600,000 of ad spending.
SG: Dembo has been saying this race will be something of a bellwether.
DEMBO: This is going to be one of the first races called, and when they show that we have brought change to this district, it's going to show that we are going to have an independent voice in Congress.
JS: Because polls close at 6 p.m. and the 6th district is entirely in the Eastern Time Zone, this will be the first competitive congressional race called in the country. So the entire country will be watching the outcome of this race as a sign of what's to come for the rest of the night. If Dembo is able to pull off this massive upset, most will see that as a sign of a blue wave sweeping over the rest of the country, with Democrats more likely to take back the majority — both the House and the Senate.
