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Friday at midnight — Halloween — is the last chance for a deal between Ohio Republicans and Democrats on new maps for Ohio’s congressional districts.
It’s likely to be a scary night for Ohio Democrats.
Lots of tiny boxes of raisins in their trick-or-treat bags instead of plenty of yummy Reese Cups.
The Ohio Redistricting Commission, made up of five Republicans and two Democrats, has until Friday night to come up with a map that could win the support of at least one of the Democratic commissioners.
But, as of Tuesday, the commission has held only one brief meeting and the Republicans have offered no plan for the commission to vote on.
And if there is no deal by Friday, the Ohio General Assembly, with its solid Republican majorities in both the House and Senate, can — and will — on a simple majority vote, approve whatever GOP-dominated map they’ve been dreaming of throughout the process, without a single Democratic vote.
You can safely bet that the maps will make it near impossible for two incumbent Democratic House members to hold onto to their seats — Emilia Sykes of Akron and Marcy Kaptur of Bowling Green. And possibly a third, Cincinnati’s Greg Landsman.
What the Republicans want is to take the current 10-5 split between Republicans and Democrats and make it 12-3. Or, better yet for them, 13-2.
And all they have to do is run out the clock in November.
The Ohio GOP is just like a dominant high school football team facing a weak opponent, where they can run out the clock in a game where they lead by 35 points or more in the third quarter. Just let the clock run until it reaches 0:00.
That is clearly what State Rep. Brian Stewart, the Pickaway County Republican who chairs the commission, and his fellow Republicans wanted all along.
“We're not going to just show all of our notes in public while you're trying to have discussions between legislative leaders about what they wouldn't support,” Stewart told reporters after the commission meeting.
And the two sides have vastly different ideas about what is fair when it comes to drawing congressional districts.
Democrats on the commission would be willing to keep the current 10-5 split. But ideally, State Rep. Dani Isaacsohn, the House minority leader, says an 8-7 split in favor of the Republicans would better reflect Ohio’s voting patterns over the past 10 years.
So, what can the Democrats and the Fair Districts Coalition of voting rights groups do about the running clock and having a GOP map shoved down their throats?
They can do what they normally do — organize a petition drive to get a repeal on the ballot.
It would be a daunting task, even for the Ohio voting rights organizations who have the infrastructure in place to mount statewide petition campaigns.
They would need to have 248,092 valid signatures of Ohio voters and submit them by Jan. 1 in order for an up-or-down referendum on the GOP map to be on the May primary ballot.
“The time will be tight, and the weather will be a challenge, but a referendum is a way forward,” said Catherine Turcer, executive director of Common Cause Ohio. "If we go that direction, we'll have to be creative.”
Isaacsohn put his finger on the problem.
“One week of terrible winter weather in December could wreck a petition drive,’’ Isaacsohn said.
It could well be that voters in Nov. 2026 GOP plan will be voting on repeal of the Republican map.
The Ohio GOP has already defeated one plan to reform redistricting last year; and they may be able to stave off repeal of their map next year.
Ther is there the possibility of a fatal flaw in the GOP plan, said David Niven, professor of political science at the University of Cincinnati.
“Here's where running out the clock might actually backfire,” Niven said. “If opponents of the map get enough signatures to get the map on the ballot, then the map cannot go into effect in 2026. In that case, it is plausible that a court could leave Republicans 'stuck' with the map already in place. “
“Running out the clock against an over-matched redistricting opponent almost always works,” Niven said. “But this time, Republicans may prove to be a victim of their own success by forcing their opponents to fight even harder.
“And could the Republicans lose this game in the end? Probably not, but Ohio State football once lost to Oberlin, albeit in 1921.”
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