In the May 2018 primary election, Ohio voters went to the polls and overwhelmingly voted for a new way of drawing legislative district lines, one aimed at taking much of the partisan politics out of the process.
The vote was 75% in favor of the constitutional amendment, 25% against.
Pretty clear what the voters’ intent was, right?
Not to Republicans in the Ohio Statehouse, apparently.
On the first go in 2023, the Republicans on Ohio's redistricting commission managed to kick the can down the road after then-Ohio Supreme Court Chief Justice Maureen O'Connor — a Republican — and the three Democratic judges on the court at the time rejected the Republicans' maps five times, saying they unfairly advantaged one political party.
But the Ohio GOP was able to stall until O'Connor was no longer on the court — a victim of Ohio's judicial age limit — and they could get a friendly state Supreme Court, which they now have.
Fast-forward to the fall of 2025, when they are required by law to update the maps — Republicans in the legislature are about to do it again. And, this time, they will nearly wipe Democrats out of the 15-member Ohio congressional delegation.
How Ohio redistricting works
The Ohio Constitution requires a 60% majority of the General Assembly to pass a plan by the end of September. That did not happen. The Democrats submitted a map. The Republicans submitted nothing.
So, in October the job passes on to the Ohio Redistricting Commission, a seven-member commission that has five Republicans and two Democrats. Both of the Democrats (as yet unnamed) would have to sign on to a majority plan by Oct. 31.
The likelihood of that happening is remote indeed.
Then, in November, the mapmaking swings back to the legislature, where, by the end of November, the GOP can pass any plan they want with a simple majority vote.
The seven-member commission skews right, but passage of a plan would need both Democrats on board by Oct. 31.
If that fails, legislators alone take over again and face a final deadline of Nov. 30. In this case, they only need a straight-line vote of 50% for their plan to become law for the rest of this decade.
And you can bet the Democrats and Ohio voting rights groups are not going to like it one bit.
“This is a dog-and-pony show,” Catherine Turcer, executive director of Common Cause Ohio, said of the process that is unfolding now. “Based on what has happened so far, I have a hard time believing there will be a bipartisan map coming out of all of this.”
The next deadline, Turcer said, “is Halloween; and that is sure to end up being a horror show.”
'We are following the process'
Tuesday, at a hearing of a joint committee on redistricting where Democrats made a final pitch for their map, Republican State Sen. Jane Timken of Stark County made it clear her side intends to kick the can down the road until they can get to November, when they can do as they please.
“We are following the process, as you know,” Timken said. “We will go through the process, and we will follow it through to the end of November.”
This is a serendipitous moment for Ohio Republican Party leaders. They can kill two birds with one stone.
On one hand, legislative Republicans are required to do this mid-decade check-up on redistricting by Ohio law.
On the other hand, Ohio is one of the states Donald Trump has been pushing to find congressional districts that can be flipped from blue to red before the 2026 mid-terms. He’s scared of losing the U.S. House for the final two years of his term as president.
Ohio Republicans believe they can whittle down the Democratic presence in the Ohio congressional delegation from 5 of 15 to 3 of 15. Maybe even 13-2.
Their leader in the White House would be most pleased.
The Democrats who could get tossed
The likely targets would be Toledo-area Democrat Marcy Kaptur and Emilia Sykes of Akron. And possibly Democrat Greg Landsman of Cincinnati, although that would be rather tricky, even for the GOP mapmakers.
But there is no Republican map yet; and it seems likely there won’t be, until GOP legislators pop something in mid-November and pass it into law, with no Democratic input whatsoever.
“There’s not a map that I know of,” State Rep. Adam Bird (R-New Richmond) said at Tuesday’s hearing. “We’re conducting hearings, as we’re required to do, and that’s where we’re at right now.”
The Democrats submitted their map, filed by State Sen. Nicki Antonio of Cleveland, in early September. If it became law, it would create eight districts that favor Republicans and seven that would likely be held by Democrats.
State Rep. Dani Isaacsohn, the Democratic House leader from Cincinnati, said the Democratic map is based on results of statewide elections over the past 10 years.
“That shows a 55-45 percent split in Ohio, in favor of the Republicans; and that works out to a 8-7 split in the delegation,” Isaacsohn said. “A very simple formula.“
Republicans in the legislature reject that argument out of hand, saying only a handful of Ohio’s 88 counties actually vote Democratic.
But, as Turcer said, “land doesn’t vote. People do.”
Isaacsohn said he will give Republican colleagues the benefit of doubt and assume they will take the process seriously. The same goes, he said, for an Ohio Supreme Court with a 6-1 Republican majority that could hear challenges to a new plan.
“Nothing can happen, nothing can get done if we are cynical and jaded about the process,” Isaacsohn said.
But the likelihood is that the GOP majority will get what it wants. And their opponents will have two choices — go to the GOP-dominated Ohio Supreme Court or mount a statewide petition initiative to put a referendum on the GOP plan on the ballot, probably next November.
Turcer said Common Cause Ohio and other voting rights groups are ready, willing, and able to get an issue on the ballot.
“We know how to do that,” Turcer said. “We have the know-how, and we have the resources.”
All of this could be avoided if the Republicans in the legislature would follow the constitutional amendment passed in 2018, Turcer said.
“It’s a fine plan,’’ Turcer said. “It only gets messed up when actual people get involved.”
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