Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear is not on the ballot Tuesday, but tonight could still be one of the biggest elections of his career.
Beshear has spent a good chunk of his political capital — and super PAC money — this election to help flip Kentucky’s Sixth Congressional District to Democrats for the first time in 14 years, a nearly improbable consideration just two years ago.
If national polling and prognosticators are correct — still a big if — Beshear could also have a big night in his role as chair of the Democratic Governors Association, as Democrats are favored to flip their 24-to-26 minority of governorships into a majority.
If both happen, Beshear is likely to cash in with national attention — just what he’s looking for, as he’s seeking momentum, name recognition and support in advance of his expected run for presidency through 2027.
Then again… the polls are often wrong. And even if Tuesday is a good night for Democrats nationally, Kentucky election results have more often than not been a series of rakes to the face over the past few decades.
Republican candidates remain a strong favorite in every other federal race, and even if they have an off night in Kentucky General Assembly races, they’re still guaranteed to have a solid supermajority in Frankfort.
Here’s a rundown of what to look for once election returns start coming in after 6 p.m. Eastern Standard Time in Kentucky, from the state constitutional amendment on the ballot, down to local elections.
The big Dembo-Alvarado bellwether
Democrats haven’t been able win back central Kentucky’s congressional district since a younger Andy Barr knocked off former Congressman Ben Chandler in 2012, but a series of events over the past two years have put the party in a position to compete.
Following Sen. Mitch McConnell’s declining health and retirement announcement, Barr decided to run for his Senate seat, leaving the Sixth Congressional District up for the taking. The open seat was still considered safe for Republicans after former state Sen. Ralph Alvarado won the nomination — as Trump won it by 15 percentage points in 2024 — but the president’s cratering approval rating and tariff-and-war-induced inflation put the race in reach.
Democratic nominee Zach Dembo has been able to compete financially with Alvarado — with the help of Democratic committees and super PAC ad spending — making the big political forecasters shift the race from Safe Republican all the way to a toss up by November.
With the district entirely in the eastern time zone, and Kentucky polls being among the earliest to close, the Dembo-Alvarado race should be the first competitive congressional race in the country to be called, barring a recount margin. But if Dembo wins, or even comes close enough for a recount, most observers will take this as a sign that Democrats will have a very good night — likely taking back the majority in the House, and in the hunt for the Senate.
On the other hand, if Alvarado wins comfortably, that’s a sign the polls and forecasters may have been off target, giving Republicans some hope.
One positive sign in the tea leaves for Dembo: Early voting was through the roof in the most populated counties of the district, where in-person early voters in Fayette, Scott and Madison counties doubled that of the 2022 midterms, with a much larger percentage of those voters being Democrats.
Clemency power is on the ballot
Kentucky voters will decide whether to amend the state constitution to limit the power of a governor to issue pardons and commutation at the end of their term — an effort spurred by the controversial clemency orders issued by Gov. Matt Bevin in 2019.
The last three ballot referendums in 2022 and 2024 went down to defeat, as Kentucky voters rejected Republican efforts to give GOP legislators the power to call themselves into session, restrict abortion rights and allow public money to fund private education.
This measure appears to be much more bipartisan than the last two election cycles, as GOP Sen. Chris McDaniel’s bill passed out of both chambers with large majorities this year. But the recent failed ballot amendments may also show a growing reluctance to tinker with the constitution.
Are Democrats doomed to blowouts in other federal races?
Kentucky has not seen a truly competitive U.S. Senate race since 2008, when McConnell narrowly survived the Great Recession and unpopular war President George W. Bush in his race against recently-deceased Democrat Bruce Lunsford.
Most prognosticators don’t give Democratic nominee Charles Booker much of a chance against Andy Barr, but he has expressed confidence that a true wave election could put him into contention.
If Booker is able to beat the odds and come within single digits of Barr, that would also send shivers down the spine of Republicans throughout the rest of the country. It could also signal Democrats creeping closer to non-blowout margins against 88-year-old GOP incumbent Rep. Hal Rogers, and Fourth District newcomer Ed Gallrein, who unseated Congressman Thomas Massie in a bitter GOP primary and now faces a Libertarian candidates that could peel off disaffected Massie fans.
Will GOP’s Frankfort supermajority get larger or smaller?
Democrats were not able to field candidates in many state legislative districts this year, perhaps wasting a golden opportunity for the superminority party to pick up a few more swing districts in what is expected to be a very favorable year for Democrats.
Still, Democrats could have a chance to knock off Republicans in a few moderate suburban districts of Louisville in a wave election, as they target Reps. Ken Fleming, Jason Nemes and Susan Witten in the House, and Sens. Julie Raque Adams in the Senate.
However, what is not in Democrats’ favor is ad spending, as those four Republican candidates alone were the beneficiaries of $1.2 million of independent PAC ad spending, while their campaigns reported spending at least $1.2 million in the general election with two more weeks left until Election Day. Their four Democratic opponents reported spending less than $250,000.
Republicans are not just hopeful that ads spending will protect suburban Republicans, but widen their 80% supermajority but knock out even more Democrats outside of Louisville. That includes the race in House District 94 between Republican Tanner Hesterberg and Democrat Johnny Ray Turner, where the GOP hopes to take the Democrats’ last remaining seat in eastern Kentucky. PACs are also spending big to knock off Democratic Rep. Adam Moore in Lexington, where GOP Rep. Killian Timoney hopes to retake the seat he lost in the 2024 primary.
Local races for mayor, and data center backlash?
Among the many local elections across Kentucky, the incumbent mayors of the state’s two largest cities are up for reelection.
Louisville Mayor Craig Greenberg has had a huge spending advantage over opponent Shameka Parrish-Wright, but she is banking on strong progressive voter turnout to put her in range of an upset.
Lexington Mayor Linda Gorton is seeking a third and final term, facing first-time candidate and realtor Raquel Carter. Gorton is touting her experience — going back to her service on the city council that began in the mid-90s — but trying to overcome the bad experience of snow removal from Lexington roads last winter.
Also, keep an eye out for potential voter backlash relating to proposed data center projects. Candidates in many local races have campaigned on accountability for local officials who were not transparent about developments or did not listen to constituents loudly opposing them in public meetings. If multiple incumbents are thrown out of office on the issue — including in the state legislature, which gave data center companies huge tax breaks — that could be a sign of action to come in the 2027 legislative session.
And there’s one more race that Beshear has his eye on. His dark money group put in at least $250,000 of ads supporting Kentucky Court of Appeals Judge Will Moynahan, again ruffling the feathers of those who recoil at the sight of partisan politics creeping into nonpartisan judicial races. Republican legislative leaders have cast their lot for Fayette Circuit Judge Lucy VanMeter, in the third consecutive election cycle where a high-profile judicial race has turned into a proxy war between the governor and legislature.
