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Politically Speaking is WVXU Senior Political Analyst Howard Wilkinson's column that examines the world of politics and how it shapes the world around us.

Analysis: Your vote on Ohio Issue 1 directly impacts November's vote on abortion. Here's how

two signs staked in mulch, one urging to vote no on issue 1 and the other urging a yes vote
Daniel Konik
Statehouse News Bureau

On Nov. 7, Ohio will become the seventh state to vote on abortion rights since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June of last year and left abortion decisions up to the states.

But the fate of that abortion rights amendment in Ohio is inextricably linked to a vote that will come next Tuesday, in a special election that Ohio Republican legislators made happen after abolishing them earlier this year.

Issue 1, the only item on the ballot in next Tuesday's election, would raise the bar for passing constitutional amendments from 50% plus one — as it has been for the past 111 years — to 60%.

If it passes, the job of abortion rights groups in November will be substantially harder and maybe impossible — which is exactly what the Ohio GOP and its fellow abortion rights opponents want.

It explains why Protect Women Ohio, an anti-abortion rights coalition funded mostly by national organizations opposed to abortion rights, dumped another $5.5 million into a TV and radio ad blitz this week in a last-ditch effort to pump up the "yes on 1" campaign.

LISTEN: What a supporter and opponent have to say about Issue 1

Protect Women Ohio told NBC News it is committed to spending $25 million to defeat the measure on the November ballot.

If Issue 1 fails, then the abortion rights amendment on the November ballot is likely to pass, according to the polling in Ohio.

But nothing is guaranteed.

Ohio is joining Michigan, Kentucky, Kansas, Vermont, Montana and California in a statewide vote on abortion rights.

Red states, blue states, purple states.

In every one of those states, the abortion rights side of the issue won. In red and purple states with 52% to 59% of the vote.

So, what would Ohio's reproductive rights constitution amendment do?

It's a general statement guaranteeing that patients can make their own decisions, including abortion, miscarriage care, birth control, and fertility treatment. The right to abortion would apply up until the time a fetus is viable in the womb, which is around 22 weeks.

After that point, abortion could be permitted "if in the professional opinion of the pregnant patient's treating physician it is necessary to protect the pregnant patient's life or health."

Protect Women Ohio is trying to fight the constitutional amendment with a message that paints the ACLU, a major supporter of the ballot issue, as the bogeyman and describes it in terms of taking away parental rights.

"Ohioans are waking up to the dangers of the ACLU's anti-parent amendment and they are terrified — and rightly so," said Protect Women Ohio press secretary Amy Natoce in a written statement.

"The extreme amendment places parental rights on the chopping block by permitting minors to undergo abortions and sex change procedures without their parents' knowledge or consent, removes health and safety protections for women, and allows painful abortions up until birth," Natoce said.

In fact, immediately after the amendment was certified by the ballot board, Protect Women Ohio launched a $5 million ad campaign claiming the ad was "anti-parent" and would encourage sex change operations for minors.

ANALYSIS: Analysis: On Issue 1, Frank LaRose says 'there is no bad time to do a good thing.' Many beg to differ

Untrue, say Ohioans for Reproductive Freedom, the pro-abortion rights coalition.

"Let's be clear: This ad is an outright lie and shows just how dirty these extremists will play to try to manipulate the people of Ohio," Jade Martinez, communications strategist ACLU Ohio, wrote recently. "The majority of Ohioans support our grassroots initiative to get government out of our personal health care decisions and create common-sense guarantees for Ohioans' freedom about their own reproductive health. The issues raised in their vile ad are pure nonsense, but extremist groups are desperate to keep the people from having a voice on this popular initiative."

Here is the full text of the amendment, as approved by Ohio's attorney general, in which it makes no mention of sex change procedures for minors, or a lack of parental consent.

The Right to Reproductive Freedom With Protections for Health and Safety by WVXU News on Scribd

The latest poll in Ohio, done by USA Today and Suffolk University, showed that 58% of Ohio voters support the abortion rights amendment.

This is one of those hot-button issues where supporters and opponents seem to be hard-wired into their positions. There is generally not much room for change, regardless of how many millions of dollars are spent by both sides.

There just aren't many undecided voters out there. You either oppose the right to an abortion or you support it.

RELATED: Your guide to Ohio's August 8 special election on Issue 1

But if that poll — with its margin of error of plus or minus 4.4% — is anywhere near the mark, then the abortion rights amendment might be the second most important vote you cast this year.

The most important may well be the vote on Issue 1 next week.

Howard Wilkinson is in his 50th year of covering politics on the local, state and national levels.