After next Tuesday's primary election in Ohio is in the books, we will know just how MAGA Republican voters in this state are.
They have a choice to make: either the mainstream, pragmatic Republican politics that has produced the likes of the Tafts and George Voinovich over the decades; or the loud, raucous and often divisive politics of Donald Trump.
That's what it boils down to in a three-way race among Bernie Moreno, Matt Dolan and Frank LaRose.
And, Wednesday morning, some evidence in an Emerson College/The Hill poll suggests that Dolan, the state senator from Chagrin Falls and favorite of the Ohio GOP establishment, is ahead of Moreno, the Trump-endorsed candidate in the race.
The poll showed Dolan with 26% support, compared to 23% for Moreno, and LaRose trending downward to 16%.
But don't read too much into that.
The same poll, conducted March 7-10, shows that 32% of GOP voters — nearly one out of three — had yet to make up their minds.
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But it does explain why Moreno's backers are hastily putting together a rally Saturday at the Dayton International Airport, with none other than Donald Trump as the main attraction.
As late as Monday of this week, there were no plans for Trump to campaign for Moreno in Ohio.
Now there is a sense of urgency about it.
Moreno, the very wealthy former luxury car dealer from Cleveland, wasn't much of a factor in this race until December when the four-times indicted and twice-impeached former president endorsed his candidacy.
Eight years ago, Moreno was very clear about Trump, saying in a radio interview that there was "no scenario in which I would support Trump."
But Moreno's daughter, Emily, worked on Trump's campaigns; and her husband, Max Miller, now a congressman from northeast Ohio, worked in the Trump White house.
So Moreno got the Trump endorsement; and along with that, endorsements of two of Trump's most reliable congressional allies, J.D. Vance, the junior senator from Ohio; and Jim Jordan, the House Judiciary chair who has made it his mission to impeach President Biden — for what, we do not know.
LaRose, the Ohio secretary of state, twisted himself in knots trying to get the Trump endorsement, but to no avail.
Moreno had the connections and that was all it took.
And yes, Trump won Ohio's electoral votes in 2016 and 2020; and could well do so again.
But that doesn’t necessarily mean Trump-endorsed candidates always win. The political landscape is littered with candidates endorsed by Trump who failed at the polls. Witness Dr. Oz and Kari Lake, among others.
Last week, Dolan's campaign got a boost from the endorsement of two very mainstream, high-profile non-MAGA Republicans: former senator Rob Portman and Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine.
"We believe his deep understanding of the issues facing our state, combined with his ability to build consensus and drive meaningful change, make him the best choice to represent Ohioans at the federal level and champion the cause of freedom at home and abroad," Portman said in a written statement, also credited to his wife Jane.
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DeWine, who has two more years left on his second term as Ohio governor, put out a statement Monday saying that Dolan is "the proven conservative" best positioned to defeat Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown in November.
"Matt's service, experience and integrity will make him the most effective voice for Ohio's interests on the national stage," Mike and Fran DeWine said in a written statement.
Another telling sign that the Moreno/MAGA crowd is worried about Dolan is that the Club for Growth, a deep-pocketed, very conservative PAC, is dumping $3 million into an attack ad campaign against Dolan.
Someone has to win this primary. Despite the polling, there is no way of telling now. Especially if one of every three GOP voters has yet to make up their minds.
Clearly there will be a lot of Republicans deciding in their polling places Tuesday.
The winner will find himself smack dab in the middle of one of the most hotly contested Senate races in the country, one in which control of the Senate could be decided.
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And the GOP winner will have to deal with this fact: There is no race in the country more important to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer than Ohio.
Schumer's campaign organization, the Senate Majority PAC, will spend $158 million in five states where control of the Senate will be decided — Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona.
And the biggest chunk of that — $65 million — will be spent in Ohio on helping Sherrod Brown maintain his seat.
Whoever wins the GOP primary will have an uphill climb.
