Analysis: Is the Ohio GOP driving down a dead-end street on Issue 1?

What is it about Ohio’s Issue 1 that has made the Ohio Republican Party so very upset that they have posted countless memes and messages on social media platforms; so wound up that they rented a big red bus emblazoned with signs saying “Vote No on Issue 1” and “Keep Ohio Red” for a 30-stop road trip through Ohio this week?

Fear.

LISTEN: Should Ohio change the way legislative maps are drawn — again?

Fear over losing control of the process of drawing congressional and state legislative district lines that have given the Republicans in the Ohio General Assembly a veto-proof supermajority.

Fear of having a legislative majority — yes, Republicans likely will still have a majority if Issue 1 passes — where they might have to reach out across the aisle and actually work with Democrats, instead of automatically getting their way on every single issue that comes down the pike.

The Ohio GOP, currently on a bus tour of mostly friendly suburban and rural areas of the state, will tell you a different story.

They want to convince Ohio voters that having a citizens’ commission made up of Republicans, Democrats and independents is a Democratic Party scheme to seize power, concocted in league with their progressive allies in voter rights organizations.

“Issue 1 is a power grab,” said Ohio GOP chairman Alex Triantafilou in one social media post. “Issue 1 takes gerrymandering and makes it the law in Ohio.

“This issue is being fueled by out-of-state special interests to permanently enshrine gerrymandering in our constitution,” Triantafilou said. “A misleading effort to confuse voters.”

Misleading, you say?

Ohio Republicans have some recent experience with misleading voters.

In August, the three-member Republican majority on the Ohio Ballot Board — led by Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, the chief elections officer of the state — put its thumb on the scale by re-writing the Issue 1 ballot language, saying it would "repeal constitutional protections against gerrymandering" and "establish a new tax-payer funded commission of appointees required to gerrymander the boundaries of state legislature and congressional districts," among other deceitful statements.

RELATED: What is Ohio Issue 1? A deep dive into the state's redistricting amendment on the ballot

The two Democrats on the ballot board went to the Ohio Supreme Court asking that LaRose’s tampering with the ballot language be undone.

And, imagine this: the four-member Republican majority on the Ohio Supreme Court went along with LaRose, except for suggesting a couple of minor tweaks.

If that doesn’t tell you something about the arrogance of one-party government in a state as big as Ohio, it’s hard to imagine what will.

If you are interested in the truth about Issue 1, don’t go by the language you see on your ballot.

You can read the state constitutional amendment itself on the Citizens Not Politicians website.

Catherine Turcer, executive director of Common Cause Ohio, one of the principal organizations in support of Issue 1, said she understands why the Ohio Republican Party is so worried about the prospect of the ballot issue passing on Nov. 5.

“I do understand that for those in power this is really scary,’’ Turcer said. “They are genuinely afraid of what voters can do. They are so isolated from the real world in their gerrymandered districts and are used to having their way.”

Triantafilou and GOP elected officials like to point to the fact that the voters in Ohio overwhelmingly approved changes in the way redistricting occurs both in 2015 and 2018.

What they do not tell you is that the present system, where seats on the Ohio Redistricting Commission go to state elected officials, has become its own form of gerrymandering.

RELATED: A timeline of Ohio's redistricting saga

In 2022, a five-member Republican majority of the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted redistricting plans that a four-member majority of the Ohio Supreme Court rejected as unconstitutional seven times.

Seven times.

Now-former Chief Justice Maureen O’Connor, a Republican who abhors partisan gerrymandering, joined with the three Democrats on the seven-member court in rejecting the GOP plans.

But O’Connor could not run for re-election that year because of Ohio’s judicial age limit law.

The commission’s Republicans kept the ball in the air long enough for O'Connor to be gone and get their way on legislative maps for this year’s election.

Now, Ohio Republicans find themselves in a position where they don’t have the bucks to compete with the Citizens Not Politicians’ nearly $25 million in TV ad money, which Triantafilou says is “mostly in secret donations.”

Well, yes and no. Much of the money for the campaign comes from 501(c)(4) committees which are not required to report the sources of their money.

Secret? Not entirely. You can see a list of the organizations — both out of state and in-state — that have contributed to the Issue 1 campaign at opensecrets.org.

There is an anti-Issue 1 PAC called Ohio Works spending as much as $2 million in ads, according to Signal Cleveland.

Ohio Republicans know something about out-of-state money, too.

In August 2023, LaRose and his allies in the legislature were trying to sell Ohio voters on another Issue 1, this one to raise the threshold for passing state constitutional amendments from a simple majority to 60%.

RELATED: Election 2024 Voter guides for Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana

It was aimed at yet another Issue 1, the November 2023 abortion rights amendment.

Richard Uihlein, a Chicago-area billionaire and Trump supporter, gave millions to the 60% campaign, which failed with 57% voting against it.

The out-of-state money that poured into the anti-abortion rights campaign last year also was a waste of money — that ballot issue also passed with 57% of the vote.

It’s not known if the GOP bus will stay parked for the next three weeks or hit the road again.

Either way, the Ohio GOP has a hard case to make.

A hard case, because it is the Ohio Republican Party itself has the most to lose if Issue 1 passes.