How often do you see a football team punt on the third down?
Not very often. Rare as hen’s teeth.
But for the Ohio Statehouse Democrats charged with representing their party’s interests in drawing new congressional district lines, it is becoming a commonplace occurrence.
Friday, on Halloween, the two Democrats on the seven-member Ohio Redistricting Commission — State Sen. Nickie J. Antonio of Lakewood and State Rep. Dani Isaacsohn of Cincinnati — cut a deal with the five Republicans on the committee that gives the GOP a distinct advantage in 12 of Ohio’s 15 congressional districts.
Two years ago, a different set of Democrats signed off on a GOP plan that resulted in the current 10-5 split in Ohio’s congressional delegation.
The plan agreed to Friday is not just for next year’s election. This map will be in place through 2030, when the next U.S. Census is done.
They are doing it for two reasons. First, because Ohio law requires mid-decade mapmaking to last until 2030; and secondly — in a fine piece of serendipity for MAGA Republicans — Ohio is one of the states Donald Trump has asked to find congressional districts that can be flipped from blue to red for the 2026 midterm election.
An 'imperfect' map
The deal has angered many in the party, from voting rights activists to unions and dozens who pleaded with the commission in public hearings not to do this.
Antonio and Isaacsohn defended their decision to go along with the Republicans by saying that not cutting a deal could have made things much worse.
“The choices were a 13-2 map, like we saw in Texas, Missouri and North Carolina, or the map we have in front of us, which not only averted disaster, but made sure that all of our current Democratic members of Congress are able to run and win in 2026,” Isaacsohn told reporters after Friday’s meeting.
Antonio put it more bluntly.
“This is not the congressional map that Ohioans deserve, however, I do believe with this map we have averted a disaster,” the Senate minority leader said.
If the Democrats had not made the deal Friday, under Ohio law the Republican majority in the legislature would have had the month of December to pass a plan without a single Democratic vote — and one that would have left very little time for Democrats and voting rights groups to mount a statewide campaign to put a repeal on next year’s primary ballot.
Eric Holder, the U.S. attorney general under President Obama, is now the head of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee. He made it clear Friday that the Democratic Party nationally is fine with the Ohio deal.
“Make no mistake, this map is a gerrymander placed on top of another gerrymander, and the fight for fairness in Ohio is far from over,” Holder said in a written statement. “Though there is substantial work to do, this imperfect map allows sitting Democrats to continue to compete in all their existing congressional districts.”
So, the deal struck Friday included a pledge form the Democrats that they would not try for a ballot referendum — although the Republican map could still be challenged in court.
Landsman, Kaptur, Sykes among the endangered Democrats
Cincinnati Democrat Greg Landsman is in his second two-year term as Ohio’s 1st District congressman. His district has included the city of Cincinnati and Warren County, but the new map make things more difficult because it now includes Clinton County, a community as Republican red as it gets.
Landsman’s new district would lean Republican with a 54% to 47% breakdown — a much tougher lift for Landsman, but doable.
In an exchange of text messages about the change, Landsman gave WVXU a rather cryptic response to how he will deal with the change.
“I’ll have plenty to say about it in a week or so,’’ Landsman wrote.
Democrat Marcy Kaptur of Toledo, who, at nearly 42 years, is the longest serving woman in the history of the U.S. House, is being targeted by the Republicans in Northwest Ohio’s 9th Congressional District.
Kaptur’s 9th District would lean Republican with a 54.5% to 45.5% Republican to Democratic ratio.
“While Democrats on the Redistricting Commission proposed a fair map at the outset of this process, in one-party rule Columbus, self-interested politicians cut side deals to pave their own future,” Kaptur’s statement read.
Democrat Emilia Sykes of Akron’s 13th Congressional District went from a “safe Democratic” seat to “leans Democratic,” with a 52-48 split in favor of the Democrats.
Sykes plans to run for re-election in the 13th District, working to “earn the votes of the new communities that have been added."
“I will always believe that, regardless of party, all voters deserve to choose their elected officials and not the other way around,” Sykes said in a statement.
So, with the deal in place, the end result could, after the November election, be the same as it is now — 10 Republicans, five Democrats. Or it could be vastly different, with a 12-3 split.
For the Democrats, who started the redistricting process in September by proposing a map of eight GOP seats and seven for Democrats, the dream is over.
They will count it as a win to keep what they have.
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