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Elections are useless to political parties unless their voters are amped up and ready to go to the polls.
And an April poll by Bowling Green State University (BGSU) made it clear which party that is in Ohio in 2026 — the Democrats.
The BGSU poll found a “majority of Ohio respondents disapprove of Donald Trump’s performance in office resulting in a -6 net job approval rating,” writes political science professor Robert Alexander, who said that “marks a slight rebound of 4 percentage points from our October poll, which found him at a -10 net job approval rating.“
”We also find that 15 percent of Trump voters in our sample regret their vote to at least ‘some degree,' " he notes.
The economy is by far the most important issue on the minds of voters, and 56% think the economy has gotten worse over the past year, compared to 22% who say it is better. A majority of voters oppose ground forces in Iran (67%), the Iran campaign itself (53%) and Donald Trump’s tariff policies (56%). Most Ohioans do not think checks and balances are currently maintaining accountability in the federal government (63%) and most are dissatisfied with how democracy is working in the country (54%).
"While Donald Trump has won the state handily three times, we see a lot of trouble brewing for him and his policies in the state,” Alexander said. “He has had a negative approval rating for a year now, and many of his policies are not popular. That about 15 percent of his voters now regret their vote to some degree suggests his grip on the state is not absolute.”
'Make Ohio a battleground again'
So, what does that translate to in terms of which party has a base more motivated to vote in the November election?
The polling, along with a strong dose of common sense, says there is only one answer to that question: Democrats.
The BGSU poll found a huge enthusiasm gap between Ohio Democrats and Ohio Republicans on which party’s voters are more motivated to vote in the November midterm election — 61% for Democrats; 37% for Republicans.
That is a massive difference in a state with demonstrably close races for Ohio governor (Democrat Amy Acton versus Republican Vivek Ramaswamy) and U.S. senator (Republican Jon Husted and Democrat Sherrod Brown).
It could make the difference in those races and down-ticket races as well.
David Niven, professor of political science at the University of Cincinnati, agreed with the poll’s findings about the “enthusiasm gap.”
“When you look at primary turnout in 2022, you can see the looming disaster that was coming for Ohio Democrats in November,” Niven said.
“Democrats attracted about half a million voters, while Republicans topped a million. For Democrats, it was a telling sign that a lot of their casual supporters were going to stay home in November and their ticket would be soundly defeated. Compared to 2022, in the 2026 primary Democrats picked up nearly 300,000 voters, and Republicans misplaced nearly 300,000 voters.
“There are still more Republicans than Democrats in Ohio. But a huge enthusiasm gap gives Democrats a chance to make Ohio a battleground again — at least for a year — and finally win some races,” Niven said.
“Every sign is pointing to close races for governor and U.S. Senate in Ohio,” reads Alexander's BGSU poll notes. “President Trump is generally unpopular, Democrats are far more enthusiastic, and the economy is a major concern for voters.
"Taken together, this midterm likely provides the best opportunity for Democrats to win statewide offices in 20 years.”
Anything is possible in politics, and it remains to be seen if Ohio Republicans can turn that ship around between now and November.
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