With tens of millions of dollars spent on campaign ads in federal races, including some that were competitive for the first time in years, more Kentuckians showed up for this year’s primary election than they have in recent cycles.
Official turnout figures haven’t yet been finalized, but GOP Secretary of State Michael Adams told Kentucky Public Radio that unofficial returns show turnout at 25.67%. KPR also used vote totals in the U.S. Senate primaries to approximate party- and county-specific turnout. Republican primary turnout surpassed Democrats, with roughly 29% of GOP registered voters heading to the polls to vote in the U.S. Senate race, compared to just 24% of registered Democrats. Those are the highest turnout rates for a midterm primary since 2014 for Republicans.
Overall, 23% of registered Kentucky voters cast a ballot in the U.S. Senate primary, the only statewide election on the ballot this year. That number does not include some 62,000 voters who skipped the Senate race on their ballot or independents who could only vote in nonpartisan elections.
A 25% turnout rate would surpass the projections Adams made ahead of the elections. Based on absentee and early voting numbers, Adams projected turnout would be “just north of 20%” in the May primary.
For the first time in years, Kentucky had several high-profile Republican primaries on the federal level. Sen. Mitch McConnell’s retirement left his seat open for the first time in 40-plus years. Congressman Andy Barr’s decision to run for that Senate seat — the GOP nomination for which he won Tuesday — left his Lexington-area House seat open. And Rep. Thomas Massie’s primary against Ed Gallrein pulled in more than $30 million of ad spending and drew national scrutiny, as President Trump put his energy into muscling the dissident congressman out of office.
Adams said that he also wouldn’t discount the importance of county offices on the ballot in driving turnout.
“Not only are there more things to vote on in a midterm, but also local offices for which voters often know the candidates personally can be a strong motivating factor,” Adams said. “As the state grows more Republican, and Democrats increasingly fail to field candidates, primary elections for local office will matter even more.”
Kentucky has closed primaries, meaning only voters who are registered members of political parties may vote for their respective party's candidates. Kentucky’s primaries are even more restrictive than some other states’, requiring voters to maintain their registration for several months prior to the primary to discourage switching parties just ahead of the election. In the past 12 years, the number of registered independents has increased by 56%, rising from 7.7% of total registered voters to 11.3%.
While turnout was high this year compared to the last couple election cycles, it’s certainly not unprecedented. This year’s turnout rate, based on KPR’s preliminary figures, was slightly lower than the primaries in 2020, a presidential election year, and 2014, when McConnell faced a highly-competitive primary challenge from Matt Bevin, who would go on to serve as Kentucky’s governor for one term.
Democratic turnout for the U.S. Senate race in this year’s primary remained low, even with a competitive Democratic primary for McConnell’s Senate seat from which Charles Booker emerged victorious.
Conspiracy theories abound, but Massie shuts them down
In what has become a new-normal in politics, conspiracy theories of voter fraud quickly began taking root in online forums after it became apparent that Massie had lost to Gallrein, and not by a slim margin.
Election skeptics and Massie fans cried fraud over high turnout numbers in the northern Kentucky district. While the percentage of voters who cast a ballot in the 4th congressional race this year is higher than turnout in recent years, it’s not unprecedented.
Based on preliminary numbers, 33.9% of registered Republicans in Massie’s district voted in his primary. In the 2020 primary, more than 31% of GOP voters in the congressional district cast a ballot, and in 2014 — another midterm election — more than 27% turned out to vote. When Democrats and independents are included in turnout totals, the turnout numbers drop below to the statewide average, Adams said.
“For far-right Republicans to accuse the Trump machine of stealing an election with mail-in ballots is something I did not have on my bingo card,” Adams said. “High turnout is what happens when a previously uncompetitive and thus boring election becomes interesting. $33 million in advertising and a presidential visit will do that.”
Massie himself took to X to calm fraud rumors, pointing to several reasons why turnout was unusually high — record-breaking ad spending, a contested Senate primary and heated local elections.
“I do not believe I lost due to fraudulent votes, mail-in ballots, hacking, or mistabulated results,” Massie wrote online. “I respect those who want to make sure, but I won’t be requesting a recount.”
Indeed, Massie’s primary received significant national attention; so much so that even voters outside of his district showed up at the polls thinking they might have a chance to vote in his race. Democrat Mary Fallon in Louisville, which neighbors the 4th congressional district, said she had thought the eccentric congressman would appear on her ballot.
“I really wanted to vote for Thomas Massie, but I didn’t realize you can’t do that if you’re a Democrat,” Fallon said.
The general election will take place on Tuesday, Nov. 3.
Kentucky Center for Investigative Reporting’s Jess Clark contributed to this report.
