A “super” El Niño will likely mean a mild winter in Greater Cincinnati — but don’t toss out your snow shovel.
The natural climate pattern happens every few years when the Pacific Ocean along the equator gets abnormally warm, affecting weather around the world. This year’s El Niño is projected to be the strongest on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Nate McGinnis is a lead meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Wilmington. He says El Niño usually causes below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures across the Ohio Valley. The impacts are most significant during late fall and winter.
“It doesn't mean that people are going to have their swimming pools open by any means, but the reality is you’re typically going to end up with longer periods of drier and warmer weather,” McGinnis said.
El Niño shifts the Pacific Jet Stream south, bringing the track of winter storms over the southern U.S. McGinnis says that doesn’t rule out the potential for snow in Greater Cincinnati, though. He points to data from 2015 and 2016, when there was another very strong El Niño.
“When I was looking back, there were several events that brought almost a foot of snow to Northern Kentucky and Southern Ohio,” McGinnis said. “So, it's not out of the realm of possibility that we would get a storm that's still moving to the south of us, but there’s enough moisture and snowfall that we actually end up with an impactful snowfall event.”
He advises people to be prepared and make an emergency kit including a flashlight, weather radio and food.
“Don't not buy salt. If your shovel broke last year, don't say, ‘Oh, there's going to be no snow, I'm not going to waste money on buying a snow shovel this year,’ ” McGinnis said. “The reality is we live in a part of the United States that gets weather regardless of whether there's El Niño.”
While El Niño is a naturally-occurring climate pattern, research suggests human-caused climate change is strengthening it. The head of the United Nations says this year’s El Niño is being “supersized,” increasing the risk of extreme weather globally.
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