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Here’s something that has not escaped the attention of the Ohio Republican establishment, even though they don’t like to acknowledge it:
President Trump is clearly losing his mojo with Ohio voters.
A short year ago, Trump was riding high with Ohio voters, coming off his third consecutive win in the Buckeye State, this time with an 11.2% margin over Vice President Kamala Harris and her truncated campaign for the presidency.
Trump’s dominance of Ohio was enough to win a U.S. Senate seat for Republican Bernie Moreno.
Trump’s strength was enough to pull Moreno over the finish line in Nov. 2024, but just barely — Moreno won with 50.09% of the vote over long-time Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown.
Without Trump on the ballot last fall, Moreno would likely still be busy selling used luxury cars in northeast Ohio instead of occupying a seat in the upper chamber of Congress, with a six-year term ahead of him.
Moreno was lucky — he latched on to Trump’s coattails when the president was at the peak of his popularity.
But the current tandem of GOP statewide candidates — Sen. Jon Husted, appointed to JD Vance’s seat back in January, and the MAGA activist Vivek Ramaswamy, the presumptive nominee for governor in 2026 — may not be so lucky.
An October poll from Bowling Green State University shows clearly that Trump’s approval rating from Ohio voters is dropping like a rock. Has been all year long.
In February, at the outset of his second term as president, Trump held a +6 favorable rating (50-44); in April he slipped to a -1 favorable rating (47-48); and in the October poll, he stands at -10 (41-51).
From a 11.2% win to a -10 favorability rating in the space of one year. That is almost unheard of.
“Fair to say, Trump was the wind in Ohio Republican sails, and now he's the bilge water,” said David Niven, political science professor at the University of Cincinnati.
But it doesn’t necessarily mean that the Ohio GOP is headed for a rout in 2026, Niven said.
“Ohio Republicans can still win, even with Trump holding them back,” Niven said. “We saw that in 2018. But it does make things close and a lot more interesting.”
It also makes it pretty clear that both Ramaswamy and Husted will likely have to steer clear of Trump in 2026 in a state where it seems voters have had all they are willing to take of Trump.
The BGSU poll shows clearly that Trump is already having a negative effect on both GOP statewide candidates.
Ramaswamy is holding a 3-point lead (50-47) against former Director of the Ohio Department of Health Amy Acton, the only declared candidate for governor on the Democratic side.
Brown, trying for a comeback after losing his Senate seat, will take on Husted next year for the remainder of Vance’s term. The BGSU poll shows it is essentially a dead heat with a one-point edge for the Democrat.
Mark R. Weaver, a lawyer and long-time GOP strategist in Ohio, said it’s not time for the Ohio Republican Party to panic over Trump’s plummeting numbers.
“Trump has been spending his political capital like a college kid in an Apple Store, so it’s no surprise his numbers have slid,” Weaver said. “But unlike any other politician of the modern era, he has a high floor and a low ceiling. His numbers constantly float between those two barriers.”
Maybe there is some way Trump could stop the bleeding, not just in Ohio, but elsewhere in a nation that has soured on him.
It's hard to imagine now how that could happen.
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