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Politically Speaking is WVXU Senior Political Analyst Howard Wilkinson's column that examines the world of politics and how it shapes the world around us.

Analysis: Control of the U.S. Senate next year could be decided in Jon Husted's race

a man in a black suit looks off in the distance
John Minchillo
/
AP
In this Oct. 16, 2018, file photo, Jon Husted, then a candidate for Ohio lt. governor, speaks at the Columbus Chamber of Commerce Government Day, in Cincinnati.

Republican Jon Husted has held a raft of jobs in Ohio politics over the past quarter century: state representative, state senator, speaker of the Ohio House, Ohio Secretary of State, lieutenant governor, and, since January, an appointed United States senator.

That’s a lot of elections, and a lot of politicking for a man who is 57 years old.

In 2026, Husted faces an election with higher stakes than he's ever encountered before — running to fill out the unexpired Senate term of JD Vance.

Husted, a Kettering Republican, is going to find himself smack-dab in the middle of a coast-to-coast war for control of the U.S. Senate.

With Donald Trump’s presidential approval ratings plummeting, Democrats see an opportunity to take control of both the House and the Senate, a situation that would leave Trump as the lamest of lame ducks, with zero chance of passing legislation in Congress unless he reaches across the aisle to Democrats. And reaching across the aisle is not his strong suit.

A pick-up of four Senate seats next year would flip the Senate.

Jon Husted doesn’t want to be the fourth and final piece of that puzzle for the Democrats.

David Niven, professor of political science at the University of Cincinnati, says being an appointed senator is not the ideal way to run.

“Here's the bottom line — the winning percentage for appointed senators is about 20 points lower than for elected senators,” Niven said.

That’s the bad news. The good news is Husted has an opportunity to lock down that Senate seat for the foreseeable future.

“If Democrats in Ohio cannot take advantage of Trump decay and knock off an appointed senator in 2026, they would be writing off this seat for the next two decades,” Niven said.

Husted goes into the early stages of the 2026 election with one clear advantage — plenty of cold, hard campaign cash. $2.6 million in the bank currently, according to recent Federal Elections Commission reports.

He has always had a knack for fundraising. In 2018, when his own bid for the GOP gubernatorial nomination was clearly failing, he pulled out of the race and went in with fellow candidate Mike DeWine, bringing with him millions of dollars for DeWIne’s campaign fund. It was one reason — one very good reason — why DeWine turned to Husted when he needed a lieutenant governor running mate.

A combination of a fat campaign bank roll and Trump’s blessing has scared off any potential GOP primary challengers. And no Democrat has surfaced just yet to take on Husted.

There are signs that may change soon; and it could be the worst possible scenario for Husted.

We know that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has traveled to former senator Sherrod Brown’s home in Columbus, presumably to try to talk him into running against Husted next year.

Brown’s long run in the Senate ended last year when Republican Bernie Moreno, boosted by Trump’s strong showing in Ohio, defeated him by about 3.6 percentage points.

Brown is getting tugged by Ohio Democrats in two different directions: those who want him to take on Husted and those who believe he is the only Democrat who can stop MAGA Republican Vivek Ramaswamy from being elected Ohio governor next year. Brown has said he is considering both, or staying out of it altogether.

“Of course this nomination is Sherrod Brown's if he wants it — and he by no means needs to campaign for years to make this run,” Niven said. "But he has really plunged the party into suspended animation waiting for him to make his move.”

And if not Brown, “the Democrats are going to be scrambling to move beyond their roster of proven losers to find someone who can actually capture Ohioans' attentions and hopes,” Niven said.

Axios reported Aug. 4 that Brown has begun interviewing potential campaign managers for a Senate race, “according to three people familiar with the matter.”

One issue that is likely to separate the candidates next year is Trump's so-called "Big Beautiful Bill," which Husted voted in favor of. Parts of that bill, including large cuts to Medicaid funding and money for school lunch programs, have proven to be unpopular, even in Ohio.

Husted has posted a long and vigorous defense of his vote on his official Senate website.

Tyson Shepard, a spokesman for Husted’s campaign, said it doesn’t matter who the Democrats run.

“Whether it’s Chuck Schumer’s hand-picked guy or somebody else, Jon’s been busy earning the trust of Ohio voters,” Shepard said. “Jon Husted is made in Ohio, not in Washington, D.C.”

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Howard Wilkinson is in his 50th year of covering politics on the local, state and national levels.